Close the books, a look ahead at FEC numbers

The second quarter is over and now we wait for the FEC numbers to be released.  But what should we expect?

In the 3rd district Phil English is facing off against challenger Kathy Dahlkemper.  In April English was showing $690k cash on had after raising $282k in the first quarter.   Dalhkemper raised $58k during the same period and had $71k on hand.  This is the make or break quarter for Dahlkemper.  She has been named as a candidate to watch on the DCCC Red-to-Blue program, but another $58k quarter will not get the job done.  For Dahlkemper to be taken seriously by the DCCC she will need to post a number that puts her with at least $250k cash on hand.

The 4th CD will be one of the more interesting races to watch.  Congressman Jason Altmire is trying to defend his seat against the Congresswomen he knocked out of the seat in the last election.  Altmire ended the first quarter this year with $1.3 million on hand and raised $477k.  Melissa Hart did not have as much success.  Hart raised $141k and had $393k cash on hand.  Hart has the name recognition and can get away with spending less than normal challenger who needs to buy that ID, but she cannot afford to fall much further behind in fundraising.  Hart is known for her work ethic and willingness to make money calls when she needs to.  Well she needs to.  Hart will need to put up a bigger number than she did in the first quarter and will need to stay close to the number Altmire puts up.

No one knows what will happen in the 5th CD.  Neither Republican Glenn Thompson nor Democrat Mark McCracken proved they could raise money in the primary.  Yet both won.  Even in the best Democratic year this seat may be too hard for a Democrat to win.  McCracken’s only hope is to put up a huge number, like $200-300k and have Thompson have a similar number he had during the primary. 

Recent polling in the 6th Congressional District has shown Congressman Jim Gerlach with a substantial lead.  Something he is not used to.   That isn’t the only big lead Gerlach had in this race. Gerlach finished the first quarter with $714k on hand and $385k raised.  His opponent Bob Roggio was trailing with only $60k on hand after raising $144k.  Roggio is going to need to slow his burn rate and start putting more dough in the bank.  Roggio was also on the watch list for the DCC Red-to-Blue list and is going to need to have a cash on hand figure of closer to $250k to stay on the watch list.  The question for Gerlach will be can he put $1 million in the bank  If so, it may be hard for Roggio to raise money in the future if he doesn’t keep put up a huge number.

Joe Sestek has proven to be one of the best fundraisers in the country during the first quarter of 08.  The 7th district congressman raised $637k in the first quarter and ended with $2.2 million on hand.  His Republican challenger Craig Williams raised $134k and with a great burn rate had $133k left.  For Williams to make this race competitive though he is going to need to close that gap.  The real question will be can Sestek get to $3m in the bank this cycle.  Something else to watch will be did Sestek’s huge number in the first quarter dry up Williams’ money?

Patrick Murhpy must have been comparing notes with Sestek as he raised $613k in the first quarter and ended with a little over $1.6 million on hand.  The biggest difference between the 8th and 7th congressional district races is Murphy’s Republican challenger raised a very impressive $422k and finished with $416k in the bank.  Tom Manion has proven he can raise money and keep pace with Murphy.  Don’t expect to see much different this quarter, look for both candidates to continue to put up impressive numbers. 

Congressman Chris Carney raised $280k and finished the first quarter with $966k while his Republican challenger, Chris Hackett, showed he was willing to spend his own money in the primary.  Now that the millionaire’s exemption has been ruled unconstitutional, it becomes a matter of how much money Hackett is willing to spend.  This race is considered by many the race with the best potential of an incumbent to be defeated.  Will Hackett be able to use that to his advantage and raise money?  Will Carney be able to use that along with his incumbent advantages and put up an even larger number in the second quarter than first?  This may be one of the most watched FEC reports in the country.

The 11th district has been one of the most entertaining races in the second quarter, but will it remain so after the numbers are released?  Congressman Paul Kanjorski raised $441k and had $1.8 million left over after the first quarter and left himself in a good financial position.  Lou Barletta also put up a good number considering he entered the race late as he raised $184k with $154k left in the bank.  This quarter may be more important for Barletta than any other congressional candidate in the state.  Barletta has had a good quarter in the media and with internal polling and Kanjorski has done everything he can to help him.  Now can Barletta turn all this into campaign cash?  Barletta needs a big number to be able to prevent Kanjorski from running television ads from now until the fall unanswered.  If he can do so, Kanjorski will be able to paint the picture he wants and frame the race as he wants. 

Congressman Charlie Dent raised $167k with $615k left in the bank in the first quarter of ’08 for his re-election bid.  His challenger, Sam Bennett, was able to show $183k cash on hand after raising $117k.  Bennett is the third Pa. challenger on the DCCC watch list for their Red-to-Blue program.  Bennett will need to continue to keep pace with Dent to remain on the radar.  The thing to watch here though is Dent’s numbers.  Dent has never proven himself as a fundraising star.  Knowing there are no safer races for Republicans this year, will Dent be able to use his incumbency to his advantage and put up a big number this quarter?