John McCain

Barack Obama is leading John McCain by 13 points in Pennsylvania, according to a new Rasmussen poll.

The poll, released Tuesday evening, shows the Democrat netting 54 percent of the vote, compared to 41 percent for McCain.

Like other surveys, Rasmussen has continued to see Obama gains, three weeks after the two candidates were tied. A SurveyUSA poll released Tuesday had Obama up by 15 points.

The polls continue to move against John McCain.

Barack Obama now leads the Republican nominee by 15 points in Pennsylvania, according to a new SurveyUSA poll.

Along with a recent Quinnipiac poll that showed the same margin, it's Obama's biggest lead so far in the Keystone State, which Republicans are increasingly concerned is slipping way from McCain.

In the new survey of 900 adults, 55 percent backed Obama, compared to 40 percent for McCain. 

Monday was the last day to register to vote before Election Day, which means today state officials are starting to tally up the new registrants.

While the exact numbers won't be clear until the end of the month, Democrats are likely to see their registration edge in the state increase. They already outnumber GOP voters by more than 1.1 million voters.

How much greater that advantage gets could go a long way in determining John McCain's chances of taking the state's 21 electoral votes away from currently leading Barack Obama.

But with new voters tending to overwhelmingly favor Obama, it's no wonder Republicans in the state are worried that Pennsylvania is slipping away from the GOP nominee.

Stay tuned. 

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Over the last year John McCain's fate in Pennsylvania may have been sealed by the registration and organization efforts of the Democratic State Committee, Democratic National Committee and the campaign organizations of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

PHILADELPHIA -- With John McCain largely ceding Michigan to the Democrats, the stakes in Pennsylvania and other battleground states are becoming higher by the day. But a month before the election, Republicans across the state sound increasingly worried that McCain's chances of winning Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes are growing increasingly slim, and there is little time to turn around the GOP nominee's sagging poll numbers in the Keystone State.

"There's a window of opportunity, but it's closing," said Jeff Coleman, a Republican political and media consultant in Harrisburg.

Since the start of the general election, McCain viewed Pennsylvania as a major prize, consistently voicing confidence that he could capture a state no Republican nominee has won since 1988. Since June McCain has been to the state 10 times to Democratic nominee Barack Obama's 5 trips, and has significantly outspent Obama on the air.

But like in other battleground states, polls in Pennsylvania have gradually been moving against him in the past two weeks. The financial crisis refocused the election on economic issues. Democrats have continued to build a registration edge that now exceeds one million voters. A Rasmussen poll last Monday showed McCain trailing Obama by 8 points, two weeks after the same poll saw the race tied. And a Muhlenberg College tracking poll Friday had Obama leading 51 percent to 39 percent, the first time the Democrat's edge in that survey had exceeded 10 points (the lead was back to 10 the next day).

Campaign, state and party officials are still confident the state can be won by McCain, saying the coordination between campaign workers and local party organizers will make for an effective ground-game in turning out Republican voters.

But several Republican consultants interviewed by PolitickerPA.com late last week saw McCain's chances here dwindling. While still considered more of a must-win for Obama than it is for McCain, the Republican's road to 270 electoral votes will become increasingly narrow without Pennsylvania.

Winning the state, Republican consultant Charlie Gerow said, is "going to depend really on the activity at the grass-roots level over the next four weeks, and that remains to be seen.

"It's going to be the old-fashioned, identify and turnout voters model that's going to work here," Gerow said.

Elliott Curson, a longtime Republican consultant in Philadelphia, went so far as to say that McCain had likely already lost the critical Philadelphia suburbs, without which it is exceedingly difficult to win a state-wide race. The only way for McCain to win, Curson said, would be a "full-court-press" to identify and turn-out Reagan Democrats in central and southwestern Pennsylvania.

"That's what it's going to take to overcome the insurmountable numbers coming out of the southeast for Obama," Curson said. "They're in a very defensive position now."

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Barack Obama will return to Pennsylvania on Friday when he makes a morning campaign stop in Montgomery County, one of the all-important suburbs of Philadelphia that could decide which direction the state swing in November.

The event, to be held at 9 a.m. in Abbington High School, comes at the heels of polls released this week that shows the Democratic presidential nominee increasing his lead over Republican nominee John McCain. 

Obama has not campaigned in Pennsylvania in nearly a month, when he held events in York, Lancaster and Wilkes-Barre the first week of September. 

Since the primary, McCain has made significantly more campaign stops than Obama in Pennsylvania. Republicans say the state's 21 electoral votes could go to a Republican for the first time in 20 years because of McCain's appeal to independents.

Obama, however, has had the advantage of a six-week campaign here in April when he competed against U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) in the primary.

Obama is expected to talk about his plans to "stand up for middle-class families."

Barack Obama holds a 7-point advantage over John McCain in Pennsylvania largely because voters think he understands the concerns of ordinary Americans, according to a new Franklin & Marshall poll.

The poll surveyed 767 registered voters in Pennsylvania from Sept. 23 to Sept. 28 and had a margin of error of 3.5 percent.

The poll is consistent with others taken in Pennsylvania that show Obama's lead increasing in recent weeks in the Keystone State, which both campaigns consider critical to their hopes this fall. 

Sixty-one percent of voters said they thought Obama best understands the concerns of ordinary Americans, compared to just 28 percent for McCain, the poll reports. Voters also think Obama can better handle the economy compared to McCain, 46 percent to 37 percent, it finds.

2008 is starting to look like 2004 in the Pennsylvania presidential election. A new poll released this morning from Franklin & Marshall confirms other polls that show the Democratic nominee opening up a lead. According to this poll, Barack Obama now leads John McCain 45% to 38%. Towards the end of September - beginning of October is when John Kerry started pulling away from George Bush in 2004. In a mid-September poll in 2004 George Bush lead Kerry 47% to then by the first poll in October Kerry had gained control with a 48% to 41% advantage.