Jim Gerlach

U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter: Getty Images PhotoST. PAUL, MINN. -- U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Philadelphia) said Tuesday that he expects an opponent in the primary when he runs for re-election in 2010.

"I do," he told reporters while seated in a cafe in the downtown Crowne Plaza Hotel. "I think I'll have an opponent in the primary, and I think I'll have an opponent in the general."

The longtime senator did not seem concerned about a potential challenge. He quoted a line from pitching great Satchel Paige that he said describes his election philosophy.

"Never look back -- somebody may be gaining," he said.

Publicly Congressman Jim Gerlach would deny ever even thinking about the future while engaged in an election to retain his PA-6 seat, but Inside Edge has talked  to more than one prominent Republican who admits Gerlach would like to take the next step up.

Gerlach, who by the nature of his district, will probably never have an easy reelection.  Running for Congress every two years in such a competitive district is a full time job in itself.  Gerlach may get a couple months off after a successful reelection, but then it's right back to fundraising for the Republican. Gerlach has had enough and would like to make a run for higher office.  But is Gerlach stuck?

There are two state-wide offices that Gerlach could look at, the first being U.S. Senate.  Republican insiders love the idea of Gerlach of running for state-wide office as they believe he could attract enough voters to make him a successful candidate.   His biggest roadblock though is Arlen Specter.  Specter has made no bones about it, he is running for reelection. 

Gerlach has floated his name as a potential gubernatorial candidate too.  But again Gerlach runs into a roadblock.  The likely candidates for the Republicans are Tom Corbett and Pat Meehan.  Corbett will likely have the support of the western Republicans and Meehan will have the backing of the Southeast Republican machine.  Gerlach, being from Montgomery County would need the support of the Southeast infrastructure and money to have a successful run and that support is already pledged to Meehan.  Southeast Republicans are making it known they will be united and they will be behind one candidate.  Meehan is that candidate so Gerlach would have a very hard time finding a winning game plan without that support.

So while Gerlach would love to make 2010 the year he moves up, he may have to wait until 2012 when the seat currently held by Bob Casey comes up.

Congressional candidate Bob Roggio: Campaign PhotoHoping to gain traction in his uphill race against U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-West Pikeland), Democrat Bob Roggio is embarking on a 50-town tour in the 6th Congressional District, one that will run from now until Election Day.

The tour kicked off this weekend in Norristown, and will include everything from door-to-door canvassing to impromptu meetings with voters at coffee shops, campaign manager Liz Conroy said. The tour continued today in Narberth, and will take Roggio everywhere from Lower Merion to Reading in the coming weeks.

The ambitious effort to visit a majority of townships in the district reflects the campaign reality that voters in the district know little, if anything, about Roggio, a political newcomer. With Gerlach well-funded and having survived two close races in the last two election cycles, many analysts see the incumbent as finally having a safe seat.

"The goal of this is really for Bob to get out and talk to people across the district about the issues that are on their mind," Conroy said.

U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach: Campaign photoWASHINGTON - In 2004, U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Upper Uwchlan Township) campaigned with George W. Bush in a difficult re-election race for his 6th Congressional District seat.

In the end, Bush lost the district to John Kerry (D-Mass.) by almost 11,000 votes. But Gerlach would go on to defeat his Democratic opponent, attorney Lois Murphy, by a more-than 6,000 vote margin. By the time the dust settled, Murphy had spent almost $2 million, accusing Gerlach of misleading of fiscal issues and tying the incumbent to then-House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas).

Two years later, Murphy was back for a rematch. In a favorable Democratic environment, Murphy doubled her expenditures and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and liberal-aligned women’s group EMILY’s List engaged. Democrats would go on to win 31 seats and the House majority in 2006, but Gerlach proved hard to beat. The Republican dispatched of Murphy by a margin of more than 3,000 votes.

U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-West Pikeland) continues to significantly outperform his Democratic opponent Bob Roggio in the money race, but with Roggio's campaign said the pace picked up during the second quarter.

Roggio's campaign had already sought to play down results of its second quarter fundraising, saying the third quarter was when things would really take off. As campaign finance reports were released Tuesday, the reason for that caution became clear.

Roggio raised almost $180,000 in the second quarter for his bid to unseat Gerlach in the 6th Congressional District, while Gerlach raised about $343,000, according to FEC filings. That means Roggio has raised almost $325,000 to date, compared to $1.8 million for Gerlach.

Targeting by ads that seek to paint them as lackies for the oil industry and President Bush, Republican Congressional incumbents on Monday lashed out against the Democratic advertising campaign for making a joking matter of high oil prices.

The advertisements, by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, are targeting Republican incumbents across the country, including three in Pennsylvania. They depict President Bush, whose voice is done by an impersonator, leaving messages for the incumbents thanking them for their support of oil companies and saying "I know I can always count on you" with a chuckle.

In Pennsylvania, the ads are targeting U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach in the 6th Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Phil English in the 3rd District and U.S. Rep. Charles Dent in the 15th.

Though English's campaign did not comment Monday, the others criticized Democrats for the attempt at humor. The ad has also spread further the widening gap between parties on whether or not to drill for domestic off-shore oil, leading the GOP again to demand action.

“They think the pain that American families are feeling is funny," Gerlach spokesman Mark Campbell told PolitickerPA.com. "They don’t understand funny. It’s really sad."

"This is a serious issue that deserves serious debate, and Democrats in Congress are the ones who are refusing to do anyone about it," he added.

Dent's campaign manager, Shawn Millan, sounded a similar tone.

"It’s time for the Democrats, especially our opponent, to get serious on this issue," he said, "It’s not a joking issue when gas is at $4 a gallon."

The second quarter is over and now we wait for the FEC numbers to be released.  But what should we expect?

In the 3rd district Phil English is facing off against challenger Kathy Dahlkemper.  In April English was showing $690k cash on had after raising $282k in the first quarter.   Dalhkemper raised $58k during the same period and had $71k on hand.  This is the make or break quarter for Dahlkemper.  She has been named as a candidate to watch on the DCCC Red-to-Blue program, but another $58k quarter will not get the job done.  For Dahlkemper to be taken seriously by the DCCC she will need to post a number that puts her with at least $250k cash on hand.

Congressional candidate Bob RoggioTen days after U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach's (R-West Pikeland) released an internal poll showing him easily dispatching Democrat Bob Roggio, the challenger on Monday released a poll of his own that showed a potentially more competitive, but still difficult race.

Roggio's poll echoed the incumbent in documenting the simple fact that Roggio, a political newcomer, is almost completely unknown to most voters of the 6th Congressional District, which includes parts of Chester, Montgomery and Berks counties. But in surveying 500 likely district voters in late June, pollsters found the same deep dissatisfaction with the Bush administration and the country that polls across the country have shown. Only 16 percent rated Bush's performance as excellent or good.

The poll commissioned by Gerlach's campaign said he well-positioned to "overcome any anti-GOP tide," and to some extent Roggio's poll reflects the same conclusion, with Gerlach's approval ratings far eclipsing Bush's and the general dissatisfaction with the direction of the country.

When the clock strikes midnight, donations for the current federal campaign finance quarter end and candidates will have to report whatever cash they have managed to raise. Candidates on all levels made last-ditch pitches for some extra dough in the final hours.

U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) kicked off the requests at 9:16 this morning, telling supporters in an email that "right now is the time to step up and own a piece of this campaign."

After the presidential candidate made his appeal, the congressional candidates jumped in.

When Bob Casey Jr. was running for a U.S. Senate office in Pennsylvania in 2006, retired businessman Bob Roggio pitched in to help out the campaign, and later even worked for the victorious Democrat's staff.

Now that Roggio, still very much a political newcomer, is making his own run for Congress, Casey is returning the favor.

In an e-mail to Roggio's supporters Saturday, Casey said he was "enthusiastically supporting Bob's candidacy and committing myself to helping Bob win in November."