Internal Roggio poll depicts closer race with Gerlach

Ten days after U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach's (R-West Pikeland) released an internal poll showing him easily dispatching Democrat Bob Roggio, the challenger on Monday released a poll of his own that showed a potentially more competitive, but still difficult race.

Roggio's poll echoed the incumbent in documenting the simple Congressional candidate Bob Roggiofact that Roggio, a political newcomer, is almost completely unknown to most voters of the 6th Congressional District, which includes parts of Chester, Montgomery and Berks counties. But in surveying 500 likely district voters in late June, pollsters found the same deep dissatisfaction with the Bush administration and the country that polls across the country have shown. Only 16 percent rated Bush's performance as excellent or good.

The poll commissioned by Gerlach's campaign said he well-positioned to "overcome any anti-GOP tide," and to some extent Roggio's poll reflects the same conclusion, with Gerlach's approval ratings far eclipsing Bush's and the general dissatisfaction with the direction of the country.

But the most promising sign for Roggio in the poll was its finding that, when introduced to Roggio through a biographical paragraph, voters could flock to him in large numbers. The paragraph, while entirely accurate, is nothing if not a completely positive biographical sketch. Still, in a year by nearly all accounts is expected to be a tough one for the GOP, his image as a Washington outsider-the paragraph describes him as "not a typical politician"-could be hugely beneficial. After the brief introduction, Gerlach went from a 17-point lead to a 7-point deficit. The margin of error of about 4.4 percent could wipe out most of that lead, but it is still a dramatic swing.

"This poll emphatically shows that contrary to what Jim Gerlach's team wants you to believe, the race for Pennsylvania's 6th district is just beginning," Roggio Campaign Manager, Liz Conroy said in a statement. "At a time when people are ready for new solutions and new ideas, Jim Gerlach epitomizes politics as usual in the eyes of voters. The 6th district is clearly excited about Bob Roggio's story and his new priorities for the region, the state and the nation."

Though the poll demonstrates possible traction in Roggio's story-he is a longtime Chester County resident and was a successful businessman-getting that message out will surely be a challenge. Gerlach retains a significant fundraising advantage, but the Roggio campaign has pledged to raise enough money to be competitive. Though the 2nd quarter fundraising period ended midnight Tuesday, the campaign has downplayed expectations for campaign finance reports due this month, focusing on the 3rd quarter as its time to narrow the money gap.

Meanwhile, some analysts have depicted Gerlach's seat is far safer than it has been in the past.

Either way, educating voters about Roggio remains the candidate's biggest challenge. Roggio last week said his campaign planned on buying advertising time on television and radio, though purchases have yet to be made.

"We're going to have a competitive race," he assured.

Mark Campbell, a Gerlach campaign spokesman, said: "Bob roggio’s poll is as wrong and misguided as his far left politicies."

The biographical sketch that shifted voters' positions read:

"Bob Roggio and his wife Jeannie have lived in Chester County for almost 40 years, where they raised three children, all of whom attended public schools. Roggio is not a typical politician. He's a local businessman who quit college after his father died to take care of his mother and work in the family business. He rose through the company's ranks to run it, creating 400 new jobs and tripling the company's income during the 10 years he was in charge. After working almost his entire adult life, at age 56, Roggio retired and then went back to college to earn his degree from Penn State in just two years. Roggio has done volunteer work around Charlestown for Little League and the Red Cross, as well as hurricane relief work in Florida."

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