Gerlach proves difficult to beat

U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach: Campaign photoWASHINGTON - In 2004, U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Upper Uwchlan Township) campaigned with George W. Bush in a difficult re-election race for his 6th Congressional District seat.

In the end, Bush lost the district to John Kerry (D-Mass.) by almost 11,000 votes. But Gerlach would go on to defeat his Democratic opponent, attorney Lois Murphy, by a more-than 6,000 vote margin. By the time the dust settled, Murphy had spent almost $2 million, accusing Gerlach of misleading of fiscal issues and tying the incumbent to then-House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas).

Two years later, Murphy was back for a rematch. In a favorable Democratic environment, Murphy doubled her expenditures and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and liberal-aligned women’s group EMILY’s List engaged. Democrats would go on to win 31 seats and the House majority in 2006, but Gerlach proved hard to beat. The Republican dispatched of Murphy by a margin of more than 3,000 votes.

It has become an election year pattern. Democrats pursue Gerlach’s seat and come up just short. When the 6th District was drawn in 2002, Democrat Dan Wofford, the son of former U.S. Sen. Harris Wofford, narrowly lost to Gerlach.

Gerlach might be able to breathe a bit easier as he heads for his third re-election bid. While the nonpartisan Cook Political Report currently predicts that Democrats will pick up between 12 and 17 seats in November, the status of Gerlach’s seat is listed as “Likely Republican.”

Democrats concede that the Republican has proven himself to be a difficult target.

“Gerlach beat some really strong and well-funded candidates in difficult years,” said Larry Ceisler, a Philadelphia-based Democratic strategist.

Pennsylvania’s 6th Congressional District, located in the state’s southeast portion, spans the Montgomery, Berks, and Chester Counties. It includes the wealthy Philadelphia Main Line suburban cities of Bryn Mawr and Ardmore. The area has been trending Democratic, splitting evenly between Bush and Al Gore in 2000 before breaking for Kerry four years later.

In a recent interview in his Capitol Hill office, Gerlach, noting that Democrats Gov. Ed Rendell and U.S. Sen. Bob Casey carried the district heavily in the previous cycle, attributed his electoral success to his attentiveness to the diverse needs of his district.

“I think we’ve been able to demonstrate to people in suburban areas and rural areas and urban areas that we understand what their issues are and work very hard to address them through legislation or projects locally that are helpful to that area and I think that’s a lot of what cuts through the partisanship and results in independents and Democrats crossing over to support us,” he said.

Gerlach’s opponent this cycle is Bob Roggio, a Democratic activist and former senior vice president of Zenith Products Corp., a company that manufactures bathroom organizational products. The major hurdle facing Roggio is money, a factor for any campaign in Philadelphia’s pricey media market. At the end of June the Democrat had raised less than $300,000 and had $260,000 on hand. Gerlach, meanwhile, has raised nearly $1.9 million during the course of the cycle and has $762,000 on hand.

Aside from Roggio’s fundraising, it is not clear what other resources Democrats will have in the race. Roggio has loaned his campaign more than $80,000, filings with the Federal Election Commission show. But in an interview, the Democrat indicated he was unlikely to pour more of his resources into the effort. The DCCC, which devoted $3 million to unseating Gerlach in 2006, would not say how much it would invest in the race.

“This is a district that is a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats,” said DCCC spokeswoman Carrie James, who pointed out that the district was one of only eight that Kerry won that Republicans hold and that Democrats now outnumber Republicans in registrations there.

“This year is a strong Democratic year and Rep. Gerlach should be worried,” she said.

Roggio said the campaign’s strategy would be mapped out in the next several weeks. But, he said, the failed policies of the Bush administration would be wrapped around Gerlach’s neck.

“There’s lots of ways we can show (Gerlach) tied into current problems,” suggested Roggio. “Gerlach’s health care plan is identical to George Bush’s,” he noted.

Terry Madonna, a professor of political science at Franklin & Marshall University, argued that in what is shaping up to be a difficult year for House Republicans at the ballot box Gerlach had reason to take his reelection seriously. While saying that Gerlach “hasn’t drawn the strongest opponent,” Madonna noted, “This is a very funny, unpredictable environment. And I’m sure he has to be worried about being swept aside in a Democratic tide.”

But Ceisler, the Democratic strategist, posited that after three tough races against Gerlach, party officials would look elsewhere.

“(Gerlach) has probably seen the worst and I don’t think there is any great appetite on the part of Democrats to unseat (him),” said Ceisler.

Gerlach fashions himself as a moderate. He has voted to fund stem cell research and against a bill to ban same sex marriage. In the interview, he urged the GOP to welcome less conservative members into its wings.

Mentioning himself and Rep. Chris Shays (R-Conn.), Gerlach said: “We have to talk about a set of issues that are different from other Republicans. And our party ought to be reflective of that.”

But Gerlach, who said he would “absolutely” campaign with Republican presidential candidate John McCain if given the chance, isn’t beyond throwing the occasional piece of red meat out for the party faithful.

Asked how many seats the GOP could lose this cycle, Gerlach responded by taking a shot at House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, accusing Pelosi of not letting a vote on offshore oil drilling come before the floor.

“It’s unbelievable to me…that the speaker won’t allow us to put up a bill that would allow us to drill,” he said, arguing that it had wide support in his district. “If she continues to stall that out on the House side, I think voter frustration is going to continue to build. And I think at that point if it’s still that way or even worse as head in October I think all bets are off as to who is going to lose the most seats in the House. I think it’s an open season at that point and anything can happen.”